New York, February 02, 2024 - PRISM MarketView - The United States labor market has started 2024 with a strong surge in job creation, significantly surpassing expert forecasts. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report released this Friday, the U.S. economy added a remarkable 353,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in January, greatly exceeding the anticipated 185,000.
This increase not only exceeded economists’ expectations but also surpassed December’s revised job gains of 333,000, up from the initial estimate of 216,000. This upward revision, including changes to November and December figures, signifies an addition of 126,000 jobs compared to earlier reports, indicating a more robust labor market than previously understood.
Wage growth also experienced a notable increase. Earnings rose by 0.6% month-over-month and 4.5% year-over-year, surpassing the expected increases of 0.3% and 4.1%, respectively. This rise in wages is a crucial indicator of inflation trends and highlights the current bargaining power of workers in the job market.
Despite these positive trends, some metrics showed a decline. The labor force participation rate dropped slightly to 62.5% from 62.6%, and the average weekly hours worked decreased marginally from 34.3 to 34.1 hours.
The job growth was not uniform across all sectors. The professional and business services sector, encompassing legal and accounting industries, led the growth by adding 74,000 jobs in January, far exceeding its 2023 monthly average of 14,000 jobs. Within this sector, professional, scientific, and technical services contributed 42,000 jobs. However, temporary employment services remained relatively unchanged over the month, with a significant reduction of 408,000 positions since March 2022.
The healthcare sector also saw a rise, adding 70,000 jobs, slightly above its 2023 average. Retail jobs increased by 45,000 in January, yet this sector has not shown significant net growth since early 2023.
Government employment, a major growth sector at the end of 2023, continued its upward trend with an addition of 36,000 jobs in January, with local government jobs (excluding education) leading the increase. In contrast, the leisure and hospitality sector, which experienced considerable growth last year, showed little change in January.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell commented on the state of the labor market, describing it as “at or nearing normal but not totally back to normal.” He emphasized the strength of the labor market for wages and job availability but noted a shift towards balance, in line with the Federal Reserve’s economic objectives.
Powell’s remarks came against the backdrop of recent corporate layoffs and a general focus on the labor market in early 2024. While these layoffs have been prominent in headlines, economists have not yet seen a significant impact on the overall job market data and did not expect it to play a major role in the January report.
Powell further clarified that the Federal Reserve does not require a weakened labor market as a precondition for rate cuts, focusing instead on strong growth, a robust labor market, and the ongoing decline in inflation observed over the past six months.
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